The October Analytics Report

3 November 2022

The October Analytics Report

The Analytics Team are back with their round-up of the latest news across the shipping industry. Keep reading to find out more about the shift in Chinese imports, the increasing demand for coal across Europe and the queues of dry bulk vessels as countries continue to move grain.

A shift in Chinese imports

The Chinese economy is experiencing a slowdown due to its harsh zero-Covid strategy, the sluggish property market (based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics), and the appreciation of the USD against the Yuan that has curbed the buying appetite of steel mills and utilities.

According to data compiled from Sea/analytics, trade activity in China has softened as imports of major bulks (from January to October 2022) such as Iron Ore (down 2.3% y-o-y), Coal (down 14% y-o-y) and Grains (down 20%0 y-o-y), have declined.

In contrast to the above, for the same period, Copper Ore arrivals have increased by 7% y-o-y due to an increase in supply from Peru, while Bauxite discharges were up by 13% y-o-y as Guinea and Australia ramped up exports to the Asian nation.

The Baltic Cape5TC average is down almost 36% from its high of $21,175/day.

As per the vessel supply model in Sea/analytics, the percentage of laden vessels gradually decreased as the month progressed, and Chinese demand was restrained.

For the major routes, the daily count of ballasting vessels heading towards Brazil increased from an average of 100-110 in early October to 140 in mid to late October. As for the C5 route, the number of daily ballasters to Australia shot up from sub-250 to sur-250 levels by the month’s latter half.


Global seaborne coal trade from January to October 2022 is almost at par with its volumes for the same period in 2021.

The latest for the European energy crisis

The energy crisis in Europe has forced utilities in the region to switch to coal (in the short and medium); as a result, combined import volumes for the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Italy, UK, and Spain are up almost 43% YTD compared to last year.

Russian exports have remained somewhat healthy despite EU sanctions, down by only 1.1% YTD y-o-y. According to data compiled by Sea/analytics, imports of Russian coal by India, Turkey and South Korea are up by 150%, 130% and 20%, respectively.

Grain continues to move

5.9 Mio Mt of grains has been exported from Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi and Odessa ports since August 2022 under The Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Egypt, Turkey, Italy, Spain and China have been the biggest beneficiaries of this scheme since its start, importing approximately 400kt of cargo each, according to the grains trade flow model in Sea/analytics.

Since the start of August, increased grain flows from the Black Sea have led to higher queues of dry bulk vessels in the Sea of Maramara (Istanbul region). The Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) – made up of Russian, Turkish, Ukrainian and UN inspectors- has been checking documentation and looking for any unauthorised cargo or crew on ships daily.

However, on more than 50 occasions, inspections could not be completed at the first attempt due to the lack of readiness of the vessel, contributing to increased congestion and waiting times in the region (Source: United Nations – Black Sea Initiative).

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