The Sea/analytics August Report
The Sea/analytics team are back with their round up of what’s been happening across the shipping industry. Keep reading to find out more about the latest bulkers setting sail from the Ukrainian ports and what impact greener shipping could have on cargo delays.
Grain starts to move from Ukraine
After months of waiting, we saw the first bulker set sail from Ukrainian ports under the UN-brokered deal allowing safe passage of grain cargoes through the Black Sea. The Sierra Leone-flagged vessel, Mv Razoni, set sail from Odessa on 1st August with an intended destination of Lebanon. Having passed its checks in Turkish waters it continued through the Sea of Marmara until changing her destination to Mersin where it made berth. A small draft decrease signals a partial discharge in Mersin before dropping off the AIS feed between Cyprus and Syria. The Razoni was witnessed conducting similar behavior in 2021 with 3 blackouts of the AIS signal. Time will tell where the ultimate destination of the cargo was but what is clear is that grain is beginning to move from Ukrainian ports.
Under the UN-brokered deal, Ukraine, Russia, and Turkey signed an agreement to enable the safe transportation by merchant ships of commercial foodstuffs and fertilizer from three key Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea: Odesa, Chronomorsk and Yuzhny. Based on data from Sea/analytics, 25 vessels (carrying approximately 930,000 Mt of grains) have departed the ports mentioned above and have or are destined to arrive in ports in Turkey, Italy, and Egypt.
Last year a total of 5.4m tonnes of grain were exported in September and 7.3m tonnes in November. Based on latest observations, 20 dry bulk vessels constituting of a combined size of 1.08m deadweight tonnes are scheduled to arrive in Ukraine between 27th– 29th August. The vessels are destined exclusively to Chornomorsk (13), Odessa (11) and Yuzhny (6) of which these ports together accounted for 56% of total grain exports last year.
The possible impact of the Green Agenda
With the green agenda creeping onto many corporate statements this year, we take the chance to step back and look at the data to help us understand the journey ahead. For example, a recent story on the proposed green corridor between Australia and East Asia saw data from Sea/analytics outline how slower steaming speeds result in reduced emissions.
As the market cooled down between October 2021 and March 2022, the steaming speeds of Capesizes decreased by 0.8 knots. We took this decrease and applied it to the entirety of 2021 to see how this could have affected emissions.
This 7.6% reduction in speed caused a 13.1% reduction in emissions (equating to 5.5mt), a good step toward reducing emissions, but the critical question is, at what cost?
The distance covered dropped by 8 million nautical miles – equivalent to 1,130 round trips of Australia – Qingdao, or an estimated 170 million tonnes of cargo. So, if a hypothetical 150,000-tonne vessel can complete seven trips a year, it would require an additional 162 ships to account for the slower speeds.
The obvious note to point out here is the additional vessels required would balance out the carbon savings already acquired. However, using the same dataset, we can estimate only a 3.8m tonne increase from the additional vessels resulting in a net savings of 3% overall.
This analysis has been conducted using the latest features to emerge from the R&D team at Sea/. Here we are developing next-generation data tools to equip ourselves for upcoming challenges and give our customers the driving force to implement change.
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