The Sea/analytics June Report

This June, the Sea/analytics Team are back with their round up of the latest news across the shipping industry. Find out more about the impact of the EU ban on Russian coal and what this means for global coal imports and how Ukrainian grain is beginning to leave the country.

EU ban on Russian coal

After postponing the EU – Russian coal ban to August this year, we see the preparations beginning to stick. YTD seaborne imports from Russia into Europe have been observed above 17 million with strong months in March and April being estimated at 3.8m and 3.6m tonnes respectively, all together 3.1m tonnes above the same period last year. A sharp slowdown has begun in June as the upcoming ban looms in August and preparations are being made to source the commodity from other origins.

One emerging contributor is South Africa which is quickly positioning itself to become Europe’s solution to its coal imports, with the Netherland’s first import from South Africa this year leaving Richards Bay only after the war began. YTD imports now total 4.3 million tonnes which is more significant than South Africa’s observed exports to Europe for the entirety of last year.

Other significant contributors to European coal imports include:

• US: 14.7m (74% ⮝ up since same period last year),
• Australia: 8.2m (10% ⮟ down since same period last year)
• Colombia:  7.3m (120% ⮝ since the same period last year)
• Canada: 4.8m (6% ⮟ down since same period last year)

Ukrainian grain beginning to move

Over this year, gold dust in the form of 20m tonnes of grains has been sitting behind a canvas of global conflict in Ukraine. Earlier in the war, we saw Constantza becoming a key arena for Ukrainian grain that was able to make it over the border into Romania. Now we see a large conglomeration of vessels gathering around the Danube River delta, which borders Ukraine and Romania. This has sparked a flurry of general cargo vessels to make the most of the opportunity and begin exporting the long-awaited 2021 harvest. To illustrate this, we can quickly view a daily count of vessels stating their destination as Sulina, Izmail and Reni, which constitute the entrance of the now prosperous Danube via our Vessel Supply page in Marine Analytics.

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